OPEC+ announced a 206,000 bpd production increase effective May 2025 — larger than the expected 135,000 bpd. Simultaneously, renewed US sanctions enforcement on Iranian crude and rising tensions around the Strait of Hormuz are repricing risk across the entire barrel.
This brief breaks down what's actually happening beneath the headline numbers: which members are increasing production, where the barrels are going, what the compliance rates actually look like, and how the Hormuz chokepoint risk changes the forward curve structure.
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